SEASONAL SLOWDOWN PREPARATION
It's December 9th. You know you should have done something about this weeks ago. You haven't.
That familiar tightness is starting. Revenue is softening. A few customers are already paying slower. You're watching the bank balance more closely than usual. And somewhere in the back of your mind, you're wondering if this December will be like last December.
It will be. Unless you do something different in the next two weeks.
I spent years in this exact position. Every December was crisis. Every January I'd promise myself we'd prepare properly next time. We never did. Until one year we actually prepared. That December was boring. Manageable. Almost disappointingly uneventful.
The difference wasn't that circumstances were kinder. The difference was we stopped lying to ourselves about what December actually looks like.
How bad is your situation? (30-second self-assessment)
Answer these honestly:
Can you explain your cash position for the next 90 days without looking at a spreadsheet?
If three customers paid 30 days late, would you struggle to make payroll?
Are you avoiding calls from suppliers?
Are you behind on HMRC payments?
Are you hoping things will just work out?
If you said yes to any of these, you're at risk. Not might be. Are.
The good news: It's December 9th. You have about 10 working days before Christmas. That's enough time to turn "we're in trouble" into "we're managing it."
The bad news: Every day you wait, your options narrow.
Why you didn't prepare (be honest)
You know December is coming. You know customers pay slower. You know suppliers get nervous. You know HMRC becomes less flexible.
So why didn't you prepare?
Because preparing feels like admitting weakness. Calling suppliers to discuss payment terms feels like saying "we're not in control." So you don't call. Then you call them in January saying "we can't pay you" which actually demonstrates you're not in control.
Because September was busy. October was busier. November disappeared in a blur. Now it's December and you're thinking "I should have done something about this months ago."
Because you've convinced yourself your situation is unique. Other businesses might struggle with seasonal variation, but your customers are loyal. Your suppliers understand. Your numbers will come right. These are lies you tell yourself because the truth is uncomfortable.
Because you're scared of what the numbers will show. If you actually model what happens when three customers pay 30 days late, you'll see you're in trouble. Better not to look. Better to hope.
I did all of this. For years. The self-deception is the killer. Not the cash flow. The cash flow is just mathematics. The self-deception is what prevents you from addressing the mathematics until you're desperate.
What December actually looks like: Two businesses, two outcomes
Business A (hoping)
Early December: Revenue down but not dramatically. Cash looks okay-ish. "We'll keep an eye on it."
Late December: Three customers 40+ days late. Biggest supplier asking about payment. Finance director choosing which creditors to pay based on who's shouting loudest.
January: Six customers 60+ days late. Two suppliers stopped deliveries. HMRC sending demands. MD having phone calls that start with "I can explain..."
February: Finance director hands in notice. "Can't do another year of this." MD takes director's loan they can't afford to make payroll. Some supplier relationships permanently damaged.
Business B (preparing - starting now)
This week: Build 13-week cash flow forecast. Model realistic stress scenario. Identify they'll be tight in week 6. Still time to act.
This week: Call three key suppliers. "Wanted to give you visibility on our approach to December/January. You're a priority relationship." Suppliers appreciate being told rather than surprised.
This week: Follow up on every outstanding invoice. Daily. "Just checking payment is being processed as agreed." Don't wait for customers to be late.
This week: Behind on VAT. Call HMRC with specific plan. "We're proposing £2k per month for six months to clear the arrears." HMRC agrees because it's still December, not January.
Late December: One customer pays 45 days late instead of predicted 30. Stressful but manageable because they modelled it. Know exactly which supplier can wait 10 days because they had the conversation.
January: Slower but under control. Use the quiet period to review what worked, what didn't. Identify that one customer needs different terms or needs to be fired. Have that conversation in January when they're calm, not December when they're desperate.
The difference between these businesses isn't money. It's honesty.
The brutal question you're avoiding
If your three biggest customers paid 60 days late instead of 30 days, what would break?
Not "what would be annoying." What would break. As in stop functioning.
If your answer is anything other than "nothing would break, we'd manage", then you don't have a seasonal problem. You have a structural problem that seasonal variation exposes.
This is where it gets psychologically difficult, because admitting you have a structural problem feels like admitting failure. So you tell yourself it's seasonal. Temporary. Bad luck.
I told myself these lies for three years. We were running with about £80k less working capital than we needed. Every month was crisis management. I convinced myself we just needed one good month. Or one big contract. Or one customer to pay early.
The problem wasn't the customers. The problem was we'd built a business that required customers to pay early in order to survive. That's not a business. That's a house of cards.
If you answered yes to any of the self-assessment questions, you have cash pressure. Now figure out what kind:
If your three biggest customers paid 60 days late instead of 30 days, would you struggle to make payroll?
Yes → You don't have a seasonal problem. You have a structural problem that seasonal variation exposes. Use the actions below to get through December/January, then use the framework to fix the underlying structure for next year.
No → Seasonal problem. The actions below will help you navigate December/January.
What you can do in the next 10 days
You can't fix your working capital structure in 10 days. But you can model it honestly, have the right conversations, and make it through without destroying relationships.
Days 1-2: Build the forecast that shows you the truth
Model three scenarios: base case, realistic stress (three customers 30 days late), serious stress (five customers 45 days late).
If realistic stress shows you in trouble in early January, you need to act this week. Not next week. This week.
Days 3-5: Have the conversations while there's still time
Suppliers: Which ones need visibility? Call them. "Wanted to give you advance notice on our approach to December/January."
Customers: Who's already showing signs of paying late? Follow up daily.
HMRC: If you're behind, call them today. Not after Christmas. They're more flexible in December than January.
The conversations you have this week determine whether you're negotiating or begging in January.
Days 6-10: Fix what you can, manage what you can't
Things you can fix immediately:
Chase every outstanding invoice aggressively
Reduce non-essential spending for December/January
Get HMRC Time to Pay arrangement in place
Have honest conversations with creditors about timing
Things you can't fix but can manage:
Your working capital structure (but you can model it and work within it)
Customer payment behaviour (but you can follow up relentlessly)
Your cost base (but you can prioritize essential spending)
What you can do in the next 30 minutes
Still reading but not ready to commit to the full plan? Do these three things today:
Call your three biggest customers with outstanding invoices. "Just checking payment is being processed as agreed for invoice X."
Check your bank balance and project forward four weeks. Rough numbers. What's coming in, what's going out. Do you have a problem?
List every supplier payment due before January 10th. Who can you absolutely not delay? Who might tolerate 10 days?
That's it. Three actions. 30 minutes. You'll know more about your actual position than you do right now.
The framework
I've built a comprehensive toolkit that covers everything in detail:
13-week cash flow template with stress-testing scenarios (Excel)
Customer payment discipline checklist - Build payment discipline throughout customer lifecycle
HMRC engagement protocol - How to negotiate Time to Pay arrangements when you're behind
Working capital adequacy assessment - Diagnose whether you have seasonal or structural problems
Strategic slowdown planning - What to fix when you have breathing room in January
Get immediate access to these: https://www.marcdrichard.com/playbook
Or message me directly for the full pack, and I'll send it over.
The bottom line
It's December 9th. You haven't prepared. Neither have most businesses.
But you're reading this, which means you're ahead of the businesses who are still pretending everything is fine.
You have about 10 working days before Christmas shutdown. That's enough time if you act now.
December 12th: Last realistic day to get HMRC arrangement before Christmas
December 16th: Last realistic day for meaningful supplier conversations
December 19th: Too late. You're in survival mode.
November would have been better. But December 9th is infinitely better than December 23rd.
The businesses that navigate seasonal pressure successfully don't have more money. They have more honesty. They look clearly at what's actually happening, not what they hope is happening. They have difficult conversations early when they're still negotiating, not late when they're begging.
You can be one of those businesses. But you need to start today.
__________________________
I help businesses navigate crisis and build resilience through operational transformation and leadership development. I've lived through multiple near-death business experiences and learned that the technical problems are usually solvable. The psychological problems - the self-deception, the avoidance, the hope masquerading as strategy - those are what actually kill businesses.
P.S. If you've read this far and recognised yourself, you're already making a better decision than I did for three years. Don't waste it. Download the toolkit and act today.